Orhon Terminal

TR

CBRT Tracker

Method
Claude, ChatGPT and Gemini each read the CBRT's MPC decisions and meeting summaries, the overview sections of the Inflation Report and the Financial Stability Report, the Governor's speeches and presentations in Turkish, and the Q&A sessions of the Inflation Report briefings, transcribed automatically from the meeting videos. They score independently and do not see each other's scores. The headline tone measures guidance: the direction the text signals for the next policy steps, from -3 (dovish) to +3 (hawkish). The current stance the text describes is scored separately. A text's score is the median of the three readings. The tone of an MPC cycle is a type-balanced average: MPC decisions, meeting summaries, reports, speeches and Q&A sessions are first averaged within each type, and the types then get equal weight.

Last completed MPC cycle (10 Sept - 21 Oct 2026): +0.4, balanced. MPC decision mildly hawkish (+0.5), MPC summary mildly hawkish (+0.5), speeches balanced (+0.3). Current stance tight (+1.9).

MPC cycleGuidance toneCurrent stance
10 Sep 2026+0.4+1.9
23 Jul 2026-0.1+2.3
11 Jun 2026+0.4+2.2
22 Apr 2026+0.5+2.2
12 Mar 2026+0.5+2.0
22 Jan 2026-1.0+2.2
11 Dec 2025-0.9+2.0
23 Oct 2025-0.9+2.1

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